Solution description
WFP counts with robust evidence from localized Anticipatory Action (AA) interventions globally, while leveraging existing best practices and evidence, which show that every USD 1 invested in AA can create a return of more than USD 7 in avoided losses and added benefits.[1] WFP Guatemala’s AA operations were launched in 2023, covering 1,200 households against drought in the Dry Corridor, and scaled up in 2024 to cover 4,500 households in the Dry Corridor and northern departments against drought and flooding. A quasi-experimental Impact Study conducted by WFP Guatemala in 2023, showed AA participants were less likely to use negative coping strategies (6.15% vs. 17.52%), and showed higher climate resilience capacities (Climate Capacity Score of 97 vs. 5), than control group ones. WFP Guatemala has worked with the Government, strengthening the National Weather and Climate Authority (INSIVUMEH) and the Ministry of Agriculture’s (MAGA) capacities, to achieve increased analytical and technical data processing capabilities under INSIVUMEH (through hardware and software provision), as well as the institutionalization of AA under MAGA’s Institutional Response Plan. WFP’s AA-related work supports SDGs 2 and 17, while contributing as well to SDGs 3 and 13.
On the basis of the evidence generated and progress made in Guatemala, echoed by those of governments, WFP Country Offices, other AA partners and communities elsewhere in the Global South, WFP Guatemala is requesting the UNOSSC supports the design and development of an industry-first Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger for AA. An AA trigger is a predefined threshold or condition embedded in an analytical platform, which enables decision-makers to take timely and informed –anticipatory– action. The proposed new trigger will complement existing agroclimatic ones, beginning with and based on Guatemala, whose prototype and methodology can be replicated in, and learn from other AA-implementing countries through South-South and Triangular Cooperation (SSTC). This approach will enable AA stakeholders to use data analytics for more effective management of recurrent food insecurity and malnutrition crises, supporting data-driven decision-making, in alignment with respective national priorities and communities’ needs. WFP Guatemala plans to develop the Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger by leveraging its own innovation resources and the UNOSSC’s co-funding, as well as its additional brokerage, data and research, and policy support. The overall objectives of this project are developing the trigger, and sharing the experience with other AA-implementing countries, with the innovation’s Technology Readiness Level being at stage 3, ready for experimental proof of concept.
To achieve these objectives, WFP Guatemala will first conduct a comprehensive and systematic data collection and analysis to identify correlations between food security and nutrition indicators, and extreme weather events, such as drought. It will examine trends in indicators that drive food insecurity and malnutrition, while also utilizing historical data to identify high-risk areas and assess the severity of potential threats. WFP will work with diverse institutions to improve information management systems that can ensure high-quality nutrition data availability, and to establish how this data can be used to enhance AA targeting, prioritization and operationalization. Reference data for the Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger will include child growth monitoring, rising levels of acute malnutrition, declines in food security, increases in staple food prices, and results from WFP’s own evidence generation processes, including the ongoing Fill the Nutrient Gap analysis.[3] Integrating, for instance, growth monitoring data within existing and new agroclimatic triggers, will allow for more nuanced and actionable information and decision-making, enabling in turn the implementation of more efficient AA that account for specific food security and nutrition needs, seasonal patterns and geographic particularities.
The Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger will leverage big data and predictive analytics, with activities involving the creation of a data analysis platform, including diverse interactive dashboard tools, which will enable AA stakeholders in Guatemala to access real-time malnutrition data, view forecasts, and incorporate these insights into preventive decision-making and eventual nutrition-specific AA. Project activities will also involve training stakeholders to use the platform, interpreting relevant data, and applying tools and frameworks linked to the trigger. This information will empower national institutions to fully own and implement, as well as to eventually institutionalize the trigger, strengthening national AA capabilities and fostering SSTC with other AA-implementing countries. The proposed project’s success will be measured by the integration of at least three data sources that demonstrate correlation and complementarity between climate and nutrition. This data must be automatically and digitally collected, adhering to the highest quality standards. Additionally, the project will be deemed successful when at least four institutions participate in and validate the design and development of the trigger.
The market size for AA and the trigger only in Guatemala is almost equal to the country’s 18 million population, while some companies and business have already expressed their interest in incorporating AA into their plans and activities, as this approach is already institutionalized within INSIVUMEH and MAGA, and is being scaled up to other Government institutions. In this sense, in terms of business model and go-to-market strategy, WFP Guatemala envisages the international and local private sectors playing a pivotal role in developing and adopting the Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger. On the one hand, WFP will first engage international private companies specializing in big data and analytics to develop the models that will predict nutrition-sensitive climate impacts on food security and nutrition. On the other hand, WFP will socialize the trigger among local private sector entities for them to identify critical periods and events, and incorporate preventive actions into their own risk management frameworks (for e.g., supply chain, market integration, etc.), as well as their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities for context-specific assistance to their collaborators, and longer-term behavior change and development programmes.
[1] El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, October 2023–March 2024
[2] WFP Guatemala’s Impact Study results can be shared with UNOSSC upon request.
[3] Fill the Nutrient Gap | World Food Programme
Innovation alignment
Historically, humanitarian responses have primarily been reactive, addressing needs only after crises hit, which has often led to inadequate and inefficient interventions. In contrast, AA constitutes a radical change in paradigm for building climate resilience and adaptation capacities in a more sustainable manner, anchored in local governments and communities’ ownership. Indeed, AA refers to a set of proactive measures taken before a crisis or disaster occurs, based on pre-defined thresholds derived from forecasts and risk analyses, which are triggered through early warning systems. Existing AA triggers, designed and used globally by WFP and other AA partners, focus solely on agroclimatic factors, which fail to incorporate crucial food security and nutrition considerations, particularly malnutrition data. The latter is already available in most countries with enough periodicity, quality and quantity to be analyzed and leveraged to trigger specific AA.
This project proposes leveraging, for the first time, big data and analytics for the development of an industry-first Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger, aiming to effectively manage recurrent food security and malnutrition crises through AA. It thus supports operationalizing a clear and concrete innovative solution to address the understudied link between climate change, and food security and nutrition. As such, the project aims to lay the groundwork for the expansion and perfecting of AA in Guatemala and elsewhere. This has in turn the potential to result in significant humanitarian needs and assistance savings, reduced livelihood losses, and increased governments and communities’ climate resilience and adaptation. The project also aims to foster SSTC exchanges among AA-implementing countries and stakeholders to continue building global evidence, which remains limited in this area and could potentially contribute to leaping forward AA globally.
WFP Guatemala has determined that no other major competitors exist for the specific global market concerned with the design and implementation of AA and triggers (first-mover advantage), and their adaption by governments and national stakeholders. This is because WFP is the only organization that designs and supports the adoption of localized triggers for AA, based on its provision of last-mile climate information services to governments and communities, in collaboration with partners such as CGIAR-CIAT (e.g., other organizations, such as FAO and Red Cross, use national-level triggers based on international and regional weather agencies’ climate forecasts, but do not triangulate them with localized data). WFP would thus stand out in the market by becoming the first AA actor to factor food security and nutrition considerations into climatic triggers, being these the main causes and consequences of humanitarian crises.
In order for the proposed innovation to be fully feasible and viable, WFP will require additional data and research support from UNOSSC around big data and analytics, while being able to potentially leverage in-kind contributions in the form of technical expertise and solutions from international private sector companies in these sectors. WFP Guatemala will also require policy and institutionalization support from UNOSSC and other local actors including INSIVUMEH and MAGA, to institutionalize AA and the trigger within the other three targeted institutions under this project (Ministries of Health/MSPAS and Social Development/MIDES, and Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition/SESAN). Finally, WFP will require UNOSSC’s brokerage support to continue innovating and fulfill the trigger’s ultimate goal, which will be the eventual design, testing and implementation of nutrition-specific AA to prevent malnutrition crises.
Overall, the Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger for AA will aim to mainly support, in alignment with WFP’s global mandate and AA’s nature: 1) SDG 2-Zero Hunger, particularly targets 2.2 (end all forms of malnutrition), and 2.4 (ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient practices); as well as 2) SDG 17-Partnerships for the Goals, particularly targets 17.6 (enhance SSTC regional and international cooperation on and access to science, technology and innovation), and 17.9 (enhance international support for implementing capacity-building to support national plans that advance the SDGs). It will also aim to contribute to SDGs 3-Good Health and Well-being (focus on nutrition) and 13-Climate Action (focus on climate).
Solution impact
WFP Guatemala is closely developing AA jointly with the Government, aligning it with the National Response Plan and key Institutional Response Plans, including INSIVUMEH, MAGA, MSPAS, MIDES and SESAN’s. This aims to transition and institutionalize the AA model into the Government’s policies and programmes. Thanks to WFP’s support, INSIVUMEH already counts with increased capacities for climate data processing, while MAGA includes agroclimatic-triggered AA for prolonged droughts in its Interinstitutional Response Plan. Key additional government actors to operationalize this project proposal will include SESAN, MSPAS and MIDES, which have all expressed their aim to integrate the nutrition-sensitive trigger and AA into their respective plans, but which require initial technical and financial support to do so, and can benefit from sharing experiences and lessons learned through SSTC. WFP Guatemala will also collaborate with the private sector for data analysis and modelling, and to eventually incorporate AA into their operations and CSR initiatives.
Economic Impact: the project will seek to further expand the ecosystem for AA to make the trigger and eventual nutrition-specific AA more palatable and feasible for the adoption of the Government and private sector in Guatemala and elsewhere. As mentioned, studies show that each dollar invested in AA can yield over seven-fold returns and avoided losses. This shift will eventually reduce humanitarian financial burdens on governments, international donors and private sector actors. This impact will be measured through the participation of Guatemalan and other countries’ government institutions in at least three SSTC activities under this proposed project.
Sociopolitical Impact: the project will aim to improve decision-making capacities of Guatemalan institutions to reduce the impacts of food insecurity and malnutrition on the most vulnerable populations to climate change, enhancing overall government and community well-being, and resilience and adaptation capacities. This will be measured through at least four Government institutions participating in and validating the design and development of the trigger, and one of these incorporating the nutrition-sensitive data platform prototype within their regular decision-making processes and potential programmes.
Environmental Impact: the project will aim to address the understudied link between climate change, and food security and nutrition, in order to develop further public and private, international and national resilience and Nexus programmes that can contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation objectives. This will be measured through the incorporation in the data platform prototype of at least three data sources that demonstrate correlation and complementarity between climate and nutrition in Guatemala. Furthermore, WFP Guatemala will leverage its Environmental and Social Sustainability Framework to ensure project activities, which will be essentially focused on institutional capacity strengthening (research and exchanges), are low-to-no environmental impact.
Replicability / scalability
The development of a Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger has significant potential for both international, and sub-/national replicability and scalability. On the one hand, and for short-term replicability and scalability in Guatemala, the project will aim to incorporate the nutrition-sensitive data platform prototype within at least one institution, with the relatively immediate potential to scale up to the other concerned four as a follow-up to this project. This will facilitate the incorporation of the trigger and eventual development of nutrition-specific AA into decision-making and operations and programming, both within the local public and private sectors.
On the other hand, and as mentioned, countries with existing AA models, social protection systems, and digital platforms for managing climate and nutrition data, such as Guatemala, will be best positioned for mid- to long-term replicability and scalability, including through WFP AA and SSTC corporate frameworks and scale-up efforts. The project in Guatemala will generate actionable evidence, lessons learned and best practices, which will then inform through SSTC opportunities within this and future projects, the adaptation, and eventual testing and institutionalization of the trigger and nutrition-specific AA in other national contexts.
Cooperation potential
In Guatemala, poverty affects six in ten people,[1] while stunting impacts one in two children,[2] the latter being the highest levels in Latin America and the Caribbean and the sixth highest in the world. Moreover ever-increasing child wasting levels rose by 16% only in 2024, compared to the previous year.[3] The annual cost of the double burden of malnutrition in Guatemala was estimated in 2020 to be over USD 12 billion, equivalent to more than 16% of the national GDP.[4] On the other hand, and closely related, the country ranked 19th out of 183 countries in human and economic losses derived from extreme weather events in 2022.[5] However, its climate adaptation capacities still remain very limited, ranking 120th out of 187 countries in 2024.[6] Guatemala’s example highlights the need for resilience and Nexus interventions that address the intertwined challenges of climate change, and food insecurity and malnutrition.
For a potential expansion of the Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger through SSTC, it is essential to consider AA-implementing countries that count with minimum levels of institutionality, and capacity and opportunity for institutionalization, as well as growing social protection systems and programmes, and at least incipient digital systems for managing climatic and nutritional information. WFP Guatemala believes the development of the trigger will generate important lessons learned and best practices that will create SSTC opportunities for other countries to explore incorporating it into their AA Guatemala’s geographic, climatic, demographic and socio-cultural characteristics, influencing the existing climate vulnerability and high malnutrition rates are relatively common and shared in highly unequal developing countries.
This presents important opportunities for the presentation and sharing, and eventual replication and roll-out of the Nutrition-Sensitive Trigger for AA, and eventually the development of nutrition-specific AA, through SSTC in the framework of and beyond this project. In fact, WFP is currently implementing AA in 36 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa, Middle East, and Asia and the Pacific,[7] all of which could benefit from the integration of the trigger into their AA models and frameworks. SSTC will be prioritized most immediately with countries in the Central American Dry Corridor, such as El Salvador, Honduras and/or Nicaragua, with which SSTC is common and has been undertaken in the past triangularly through WFP, as well as the Caribbean, such as Haiti and Dominican Republic, where AA has been focused on flooding. In future projects, and ideally with UNOSSC’s continued support, WFP Guatemala would aim to pursue additional SSTC opportunities with other countries leading AA development globally, such as Bangladesh, Somalia and Mozambique.
SSTC opportunities around the Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Trigger will take the form of capacity building initiatives, prioritizing online vs. on-site trainings and workshops, in order to make the most efficient use of own resources and UNOSSC’s contribution under this first Innovation Challenge, as well as information and lessons learned exchanges under WFP’s larger corporate ongoing AA research projects. Based on the future availability of funding, which is could be mobilized by leveraging the brokerage and co-funding support of UNOSSC, WFP and its Innovation Accelerator, as well as other AA partners and donors, WFP globally and Guatemala could also consider pursuing and supporting SSTC high-level policy dialogues on nutrition-sensitive AA to further contribute to the use and institutionalization of the trigger.
[1] INE APLICARÁ LA ENCOVI 2023 – Instituto Nacional de Estadística
[3] Desnutrición Aguda – SIINSAN
[4] El costo de la doble carga de la malnutrición. Impacto social y económico en Guatemala | World Food Programme
[5] Climate Risk Index 2025.pdf
[6] Rankings // Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative // University of Notre Dame
[7] Anticipatory Action for climate shocks | World Food Programme
Territory coverage
This project will be mainly implemented at the national level, including government institutions, AA partners (UN Agencies & NGOs), and international and local private sector representatives, based in the capital city of Guatemala.
Collaborators
Rodrigo Salazar, as the Emergency Preparedness & Response and Disaster Risk Finance Officer at WFP Guatemala, will lead the expert project team, composed of himself and Bernardo Diaz (Disaster Risk Finance Specialist), with the close supervisory and technical support of Kate Sinclair (Head of Programme) and Eunice Lopez (Nutrition Officer), respectively. Rodrigo’s team has successfully led and achieved the annual scale-up of Disaster Risk Finance (DRF) activities at WFP Guatemala in the past years, including the expanded provision of Disaster Risk Insurance, AA and Climate Information Services to governments and communities.
Furthermore, as the Country Office’s Innovations Focal Point, Rodrigo has led WFP Guatemala to become one of WFP’s Innovation Hubs since 2023, together with Colombia, Jordan, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda Country Offices.[1] Indeed, WFP Guatemala has developed and is implementing innovative initiatives and solutions such as the aforementioned DRF, as well as Women Drone Pilots, Sustainable Energy Solutions (e.g., Women Solar Engineers), the national School Feeding Management Application (institutionalized within the Ministry of Education’s servers), and an industry-first Forecast Index Insurance (whose prototype is ready for testing).
The implementing expert project team at the Programme Unit will also leverage WFP Guatemala’s operational support, mainly from the Partnerships & Reporting Unit, as well as the Research Assessment & Monitoring, Supply Chain, Technology, Finance, and Gender Protection & Inclusion functions, among others. Furthermore, the team will count on the strategic support of the WFP Regional Bureau for LAC in Panama, Innovation Accelerator in Munich, and Headquarters in Rome.
