Challenges

This project addresses the challenge of Madagascar, Namibia and Zambia, that are resource-rich countries but remaining dependent on primary commodities without sufficient local value addition. Despite holding significant reserves of minerals essential for clean energy technologies, these countires risk deepening their commodity dependence unless they diversify their economies and build capacity for value-added production. To overcome this, the project employs economic complexity and product space analyses to identify strategic opportunities for industrial diversification and local processing. By enhancing institutional readiness, fostering stakeholder collaboration, and aligning policy instruments aiming at economic diversification of those countries, the initiative supports the achievement of SDGs, particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure).

Toward a Solution

This project was launched to address a pressing structural challenge: although targeted countries possess vast reserves of minerals essential to clean energy technologies, such as copper and cobalt, they remain heavily dependent on raw mineral exports. This reliance exposes them to price volatility and hinders progress towards structural transformation and economic diversification. The initiative aims to shift this dynamic by fostering local value addition and economic diversification within and beyond the critical mineral value chains, building institutional capacities, and promoting a sustainable and inclusive pathway for industrial development. In doing so, it directly supports several SDGs, particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

To identify and capitalise on diversification opportunities, the initiative applies the economic complexity (assessing the productive capabilities that an area already has) and product space (a methodology that shows how different products are connected). These tools allow the countries to map their current productive capacities and identify new industries that are both feasible and strategically linked to existing capabilities. This evidence-based approach provides the governments with a realistic and data-driven roadmap for industrial upgrading. Moreover, by focusing on downstream processing and regional value chains, the project contributes to a more equitable and sustainable exploitation of natural resources.

The participatory nature of the project is also to be noted. It brings together a wide array of stakeholders, including government ministries, businesse, and development partners. This collaborative framework ensures that policy recommendations are technically and politically feasible and aligned with national development priorities. By fostering dialogue across institutions and sectors, the initiative enhanced institutional coordination and policy coherence – critical factors for sustained transformation. Being funded by the Government of Japan, a country with deep experience in economic development policies and innovation, the involvement of Japan’s industrial players is envisaged.

The initiative exemplifies triangular cooperation by combining donor support with UNCTAD’s technical expertise and strong country ownership. It also has cross-country, South-South cooperation component – by engaging multiple countries facing similar developmental hurdles, the project can facilitate peer learning and knowledge exchange between policymakers from Madagascar, Namibia and Zambia. It can encourage them to compare strategies on industrial policy, infrastructure planning, and investment attraction, and even lead to further cross-border initiatives to collectively address the transnational challenges such as fragmented supply chains and infrastructure bottlenecks.

In terms of results, the initiative delivers customised diagnostics for each participating country, highlighting specific products and industries with potential for value addition and export upgrading. The findings of analysis are to be used to inform the design of national CETM strategies. This helps the countries carve out competitive advantages in the green economy, moving them away from extractive dependence and toward more dynamic, diversified growth models. Sustainability is also built into the project – rather than implementing isolated technical interventions, the initiative strengthens national institutions, fosters cross-sectoral alignment, and embeds value addition strategies into national development planning.

Finally, the methodology is highly replicable; this project is based on the success in the similar project targeting Suape Industrial Port, Brazil. With access to reliable data and institutional collaboration, other resource-rich developing countries can adapt this framework to their own contexts. UNCTAD sees potential to scale this project to additional countries and sectors, particularly across the African continent.

This project was launched to address a pressing structural challenge: although targeted countries possess vast reserves of minerals essential to clean energy technologies, such as copper and cobalt, they remain heavily dependent on raw mineral exports. This reliance exposes them to price volatility and hinders progress towards structural transformation and economic diversification. The initiative aims to shift this dynamic by fostering local value addition and economic diversification within and beyond the critical mineral value chains, building institutional capacities, and promoting a sustainable and inclusive pathway for industrial development. In doing so, it directly supports several SDGs, particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). 

To identify and capitalise on diversification opportunities, the initiative applies the economic complexity (assessing the productive capabilities that an area already has) and product space (a methodology that shows how different products are connected). These tools allow the countries to map their current productive capacities and identify new industries that are both feasible and strategically linked to existing capabilities. This evidence-based approach provides the governments with a realistic and data-driven roadmap for industrial upgrading. Moreover, by focusing on downstream processing and regional value chains, the project contributes to a more equitable and sustainable exploitation of natural resources

The participatory nature of the project is also to be noted. It brings together a wide array of stakeholders, including government ministries, businesse, and development partners. This collaborative framework ensures that policy recommendations are technically and politically feasible and aligned with national development priorities. By fostering dialogue across institutions and sectors, the initiative enhanced institutional coordination and policy coherence – critical factors for sustained transformation. Being funded by the Government of Japan, a country with deep experience in economic development policies and innovation, the involvement of Japan’s industrial players is envisaged.

The initiative exemplifies triangular cooperation by combining donor support with UNCTAD’s technical expertise and strong country ownership. It also has cross-country, South-South cooperation component – by engaging multiple countries facing similar developmental hurdles, the project can facilitate peer learning and knowledge exchange between policymakers from Madagascar, Namibia and Zambia. It can encourage them to compare strategies on industrial policy, infrastructure planning, and investment attraction, and even lead to further cross-border initiatives to collectively address the transnational challenges such as fragmented supply chains and infrastructure bottlenecks.

In terms of results, the initiative delivers customised diagnostics for each participating country, highlighting specific products and industries with potential for value addition and export upgrading. The findings of analysis are to be used to inform the design of national CETM strategies. This helps the countries carve out competitive advantages in the green economy, moving them away from extractive dependence and toward more dynamic, diversified growth models. Sustainability is also built into the project – rather than implementing isolated technical interventions, the initiative strengthens national institutions, fosters cross-sectoral alignment, and embeds value addition strategies into national development planning.

Finally, the methodology is highly replicable; this project is based on the success in the similar project targeting Suape Industrial Port, Brazil. With access to reliable data and institutional collaboration, other resource-rich developing countries can adapt this framework to their own contexts. UNCTAD sees potential to scale this project to additional countries and sectors, particularly across the African continent.